UK marriages predicted to decline to historic lows by 2050: a 28% drop forecasted over the next 30 years
The landscape of marriage and divorce in the UK has undergone significant transformation since the 1970s. By comparing historical and current statistics, we can understand these evolving societal trends.
Predictions for 2050
Looking ahead to 2050, we can make some predictions based on current trends and data:
Marriage rates
If the current trend continues, the marriage rate is likely to decline further. By 2050, it is predicted that only about 3 in 10 people will be married, reflecting ongoing societal shifts towards cohabitation and individualism.
The annual number of marriages could fall below 200,000, given the current rate of decline. The total number of marriages in the UK is expected to continue its downward trend, falling to around 175,137 by 2050. This represents a significant 28% decline from 2019.
Divorce rates
The proportion of marriages ending in divorce might stabilise around current levels or decrease slightly, thanks to legal reforms and changing social attitudes towards marriage and separation.
By 2050, it is anticipated that about 35% of marriages will end in divorce, a slight decrease from the current rate as the societal understanding and management of relationships improve.
Marriage rates: a decline over decades
In the 1970s, marriage was a prevalent institution in the UK. Approximately 7 in 10 people aged 16 and over were married.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the annual number of marriages in the UK peaked in 1972 with over 480,000 ceremonies.
This represented a marriage rate of around 75 per 1,000 unmarried men and 60 per 1,000 unmarried women.
Fast forward to 2024, and the picture looks quite different. The latest ONS data reveals that the annual number of marriages has significantly declined.
In 2019, there were about 250,000 marriages, translating to a marriage rate of approximately 21 per 1,000 unmarried men and 19 per 1,000 unmarried women. This shift suggests that today, around 4 in 10 people are married, marking a dramatic drop from the 1970s.
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7 in 10
people were married in 1970 -
4 in 10
people were married in 2024 -
35%
of marriages will end in divorce by 2050
Divorce rates: peaks and troughs
Divorce statistics also paint an interesting picture. In the 1970s, the UK saw a steady rise in divorce rates, culminating in the Divorce Reform Act of 1969, which made it easier for couples to dissolve their marriages.
By 1993, the divorce rate had reached a peak of 165,018 divorces. During this period, approximately 1 in 3 marriages ended in divorce.
In recent years, while the absolute number of divorces has decreased (in part due to fewer marriages), the proportion of marriages ending in divorce has remained significant.
In 2021, there were 113,505 divorces out of approximately 245,000 marriages, suggesting that around 46% of marriages ended in divorce. By 2023, the number of divorces dropped to 76,089, with the latest data indicating that about 38% of marriages end in divorce.
In 1970, approximately 1 in 10 people were divorced. By 2024, this figure has risen to about 2 in 10 people, reflecting the broader acceptance and occurrence of divorce in modern society.
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1 in 10
people were divorced in 1970 -
2 in 10
people were divorced in 2024
Population context: then and now
To understand these statistics in context, it's crucial to consider the UK's population growth.
In the 1970s, the population of the UK was approximately 55 million. By 2024, this figure has risen to around 68 million.
Despite the increase in population, the number of marriages has halved, indicating a substantial shift in societal attitudes towards marriage.
Recent trends and influences
Marriage and divorce trends have undergone significant shifts in recent years, shaped by a combination of societal, economic, and legislative factors.
COVID-19 Pandemic
Several recent events have influenced marriage and divorce trends. The COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, caused an initial drop in divorces due to lockdowns and court closures. However, the sustained stress led to a spike in 2021 with 113,505 divorces.
The cost-of-living crisis has also played a significant role, causing many couples to delay or reconsider the timing of their divorce due to financial pressures.
Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Act 2020
The Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Act 2020, which came into effect in April 2022, introduced no-fault divorces.
This legislative change likely contributed to the sharp decline in divorces in 2022 and 2023, with numbers falling to 80,057 and 76,089 respectively.
This new law allows couples to divorce without having to prove fault, making the process simpler and less contentious.
A society in transition
The comparison between the 1970s and 2024 highlights a profound change in the UK’s approach to marriage and divorce.
While 7 in 10 people were married in the 1970s, this figure has fallen to 4 in 10 today. Similarly, while divorce rates have stabilised, they remain a significant aspect of modern relationships.
The proportion of marriages ending in divorce has risen from 1 in 3 in 1970 to approximately 2 in 5 in 2024. By 2050, these numbers are expected to continue evolving, with fewer people getting married and a slight decrease in divorce rates among those who do marry.
These trends reflect broader social shifts, including changing attitudes towards cohabitation, increased acceptance of diverse family structures, and evolving economic factors influencing personal choices.
Summary
As we move further into the 21st century, understanding these patterns helps inform policy and support services tailored to contemporary family dynamics.
All of these issues are very much live topics of conversation, policy and changing practice in the current family law world. There needs to be more of a focus on the law that applies to couples who cohabit rather than marry as at the moment the law is antiquated, complex and isn’t moving with these changing times. The current Government have committed to consider the area of cohabitation further but let’s see what 2025 brings.
As family lawyers we also need to be at the forefront of providing clarity on so many emerging family issues such as family wealth (through marital agreements), contributions to property (entering into a declaration of trust is key if you are buying a property with anyone), parenting agreements and agreements when couples are not married with children. Thinking about these things at the start of a relationship is much better then dealing with the fall out at the end, especially when the law is not keeping up with changing society.
As we move further into the 21st century, understanding these patterns helps inform policy and support services tailored to contemporary family dynamics.
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1 in 3
marriages ended in divorce in 1970 -
2 in 5
marriages ended in divorce in 2024
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